Bharati diplomacy is at a stalemate. It cannot win for losing. It has tried the sabotage Pakistan–trying to force it to cry Uncle strategy. Its support for the TTP, and the BlA has has turned world opinion against Delhi. It tried to muscle in to Tajikistan–and had to face reversals after China and even Russia asked them to leave. Delhi then tried to dump Karzai and support Abdullah Abdullah–something that backfired in a big way. Now Karzai is firmly in the Pakistan camp. Delhi then tried to ego massage the Saudis into getting a role in Afghanistan. They faced a No-bid in Riyadh. Even the Putin card failed when, when an embarrassed host had to hear Putin eulogize Pakistan–in Delhi. It strategy to bifurcate Afghanistan have been exposed. India using ‘aid’ to Kabul- to split Afghanistan
Ashok Mehta in the Daily Pioneer describes the political topography succinctly.
By acknowledging Pakistan’s pivotal role in peace and stability in Afghanistan, and downgrading India’s importance, Mr Karzai has made a dramatic turnaround from the days he refused to shake hands with President Pervez Musharraf. On a visit to Islamabad last week he described India “as a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother. We are conjoined twins. There is no separation”. He has realised that without the Generals in Pakistan, there can be no reconciliation with the Taliban. Further in Islamabad he emphasised Afghanistan’s neutrality and stressed he did not want proxy wars between India and Pakistan and the US and Iran.
It now obvious that the geo strategic location of Pakistan has made it an important ally for America in Afghanistan. The pugnacious Pakistanis are playing their cards well in the face of horrible odds. The tripartite agreement with Iran and Afghanistan gave them leverage to impact the Regional Conference in Istanbul–which enabled them to get a sane resolution at the London Conference on Afghanistan. Indian presence in Afghanistan is history!
After the London Conference, both the US-led coalition and Afghanistan have put all their eggs in the Pakistani basket. What is not clear is US intention: Cut and run or stay the course beyond 2012. For the present it seems mid-2011 is only the time line for thinning out to commence and not any upstick of forces. A process of handing-taking over will start, based on a flexible transition timetable, commensurate with political and military capacity-building as well as development. In other words, a sequential transfer of authority to the Afghan Government, including ownership of the peace process.
Shaping up are two scenarios: A Karzai-led inclusive Government; a Taliban-led or dominated regime. Pakistan’s flag flies higher than India’s in Afghanistan. India’s stature has diminished due to a number of reasons: Rejection of its passionate advocacy that talking to Taliban is like frying snowflakes; not being consulted on AfPak; not invited to the Istanbul Conference and being sidelined at the London Conference. The final blow was the deadly third targeted attack last month against Indian interests in Kabul in which, among others, three Army Majors teaching English to the Afghan Army were killed. India diminished in Afghanistan, Ashok K Mehta. The Daily Pioneer.
What Fareed Zakaria describes as the success of Obama’s Afghanistan-Pakistan policy is actually the Pakistani policy from the very start. In 2001 the Pakistanis told the Americans not to attack Pakistan and bring about a regime change with the moderate Taliban. That sane advice was ignored. America after banging its head for a decade clearly realizes that victory in Afghanistan is very much dependent on the cooperation of Pakistan. It was hard to get through the American tin ear. It took a decade of body bags going back on C-130s for Washington to see things clearly. The Pakistanis have finally been able to influence American policies and bring them in line with their strategic interests. Therefore the apparent indifference by the US towards Indian concerns as displayed by the uncharitable remarks of Holbrooke. India is hamstring by these realities, as well as overplaying its cards in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Things are worse for a variety of reasons. Bharat’s foreign policy mandarins should have carried out a cost-benefit analysis regarding the Afghan mission and adopt a hard headed approach based on withdrawal. However Bharat has been unable to change its course
Chidanand Rjghatta has written an article in Times of India about Bharati (aka Indian) problems with the US. it describes the problems between the US and Bharat. India’s brilliant blunder in Afghanistan
WASHINGTON: The atmospherics are good but the ground realities are unfavourable. India is struggling to stay relevant and advance its geo-political equities with the United States at a time Washington is buffeted by domestic pressures and international crises that are undercutting its resolve to put ties with New Delhi on a higher plane. India out of the loop on Af-Pak,Chidanand Rajghatta, TNN, Mar 18, 2010, 01.13am IST
There is ample evidence, in this Post London Conference that Bharat is having a tough time selling its Anti-Pakistan agenda, which also proposes to bifurcate Afghanistan into Pakhutn and Non-Pakhtun mini-states. Bharat hopes that it will be able to influence the Non-Pakhtun state a bit better. Its entire aid package is built around its own strategic interests which aim to create new roads, and access to Central Asia via the Iranian port of Chahbahar. Bharat cares two hoots about Afghans–all it wants is Bharati goods to reach the markets of Europe and Central Asia. Wall Street’s role in the Indo-U.S. relationship.
Good intentions, broad agenda, and packed schedules notwithstanding, Indian diplomatic foray into Washington this week was notable for gripes and grievances than any significant advancement towards the stated goal of achieving a strategic relationship with the US, foreign secretary Nirupama Rao had a series of meetings on Tuesday, including a drop-in by secretary of state Hillary Clinton at a state department meeting with her counterpart William Burns, but in the end there was no meeting of minds on the most fundamental security issue of the times. India out of the loop on Af-Pak, Chidanand Rajghatta, TNN, Mar 18, 2010, 01.13am IST
The Bharati press is full of gripes about the USA. Fake encounters, and false flags were used to malign Pakistan. Delhi even tried to play the Putin card. Nothing seems to working for the Bharati policy makers.
Rajghatta is behind the times. Using words that have fallen into disrepute shows, that Bharat is still parked in Bushland. Delhi has not realized that Bush is no longer president and the “build India as a counterweight to China” has been sent to the dustbin of history. Rajghatta still wants to use the term Af-Pak, a term hated by both Pakistan and Afghanistan. However Chidanand is right about the fact that the USA and Britain want to get out of Afghanistan as quickly as possible.
India and US disagree on Afghanistan and Pakistan. That much became clear towards the end of the foreign secretary’s visit although elaboration on this issue was foiled by the cancellation of Rao’s wrap-up press meet (Indian Embassy said she was unwell).
At a time when Washington is searching for an exit strategy from the Af-Pak region, a statement released at the end of her visit (in lieu of the cancelled press conference) tersely noted that “she (Rao) reiterated India’s long-held position that it was important for the international community to stay the present course in Afghanistan for as long as it is necessary.” The international community on the other hand wants to get the hell out of Afghanistan — yesterday. Chidanand Rajghatta
One of the biggest hurdles in the US-Bharati relationship is the non-operationalization of the 123-Nuclear deal which languishes on a backburner in Washington.
There were other unresolved issues. Rao’s engagement was also partly torpedoed by the withdrawal by the government of the nuclear liability bill in Parliament hours after her arrival here. As a result, there was little progress on tying up loose ends of the civilian nuclear deal including an agreement on reprocessing although there were brave words about the deal being on track and on schedule. Chidanand Rajghatta
Bharati companies are still on the export control list. Delhi is struggling to get them removed without much luck.
Most notably, on the issue of high-tech cooperation, the Indian side was still pleading for removal of some its organizations from the so-called Entities List, seven years after the establishment of the group. “The Indian side requested the US department of commerce to review US export controls applicable to India and update them to bring them in keeping with the changed political realities that contextualize India-US strategic partnership today,” the concluding statement said…But on the Af-Pak issue, India is clearly out of the loop. Pakistan is again the new game in town. Chidanand Rajghatta
Seema Mustafa has written a prodigiously effulgent article on the malaise of that Bharat (aka India) finds itself in. She writes of Buzz Express–and Indian news outlet. She clearly identifies the reasons for Delhi’s failure and provides a few pointers on new directions in Bharati foreign policy.
Pakistan is America’s strategic ally for Afghanistan to the point where India has been isolated. India, however, continues to strive to hold on to its few assets in Afghanistan in a bid to foil Islamabad’s plans to control Kabul, politically and strategically if and when the Americans manage to execute their exit policy. The attack on the guesthouse in Kabul that is a favourite with visiting Indians was a clear indication that their safety and security is now at high risk. And that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is not just incapable but also unwilling to ensure that all Indians working and living in Kabul are given adequate protection.
Bharat was also unable to make its case on not supplying arms to Islamabad. In fact Washington gifted a squadron of Cobras while Ms. Rao was making the rounds in Washington.
Rao meanwhile was telling think-tankers that Taliban remained untouchables for New Delhi. India’s gripe about US arms to Pakistan also went largely unaddressed. In fact, even as Rao was complaining about the potential use by Pakistan of US-supplied weapons against India, Washington had delivered from its base in Jordan a squadron of 14 AH-1 Cobra advanced helicopter gunships to Pakistan. Chidanand Rajghatta
Seema Mustafa correctly identifies the fact that Kabul, in fact all of Afghanistan is inhospitable for Bharatis.
It is apparent from the few leaked stories that are now appearing in the media that national security adviser Shiv Shankar Menon returned from his visit to Kabul with the distinct impression that Indians there are no longer secure. The government seems to be seriously contemplating reducing the strength of missions in Kabul, and recalling soft targets like doctors and others. It is clear that the decision to send paramilitary forces for the protection of Indians in Afghanistan is not a foolproof arrangement against suicide bombers, and the issue of security will remain wide open.
Like Rajghatta Seema Mustafa laments about Washington, about Mr. Karzai, and about the failure of Bharati policies.
Pakistan has been urging the US to put pressure on India so that it closes its consulates in Afghanistan and curtails its presence in that country. New Delhi refused to succumb to the pressure but clearly now the threat of violence and the lukewarm response of the Karzai government is forcing a decision that does not serve Indian interests in the long run. But the choice is difficult and the government cannot be blamed for whittling down its presence in the violence torn country. Seema Mustafa
Ms. Mustafa complains about Pakistan not wanting to continue talks. The fact remains that it is Delhi that wants talks for the sake of talks–and like a broken record and a bad CD is stuck on the false flag of Mumbai. Bharat has overplayed its hand with the TTP–and now faces world approbation in the form of snubs in London and Washington. Bharati analysts do not realize that they are are barking up the wrong tree. The world is not interested in carping about Mumbai. They see the carnage in Lahore, and suspect Bharat.
The point however, is that Pakistan has decided not to continue talks with India and to keep the hostilities alive so that it does not have to shift the troops from the borders with India into ongoing operations along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s willingness to talk despite the odds has been interpreted by Islamabad as weakness, and the anti-India cacophony has only intensified as a result.
The hardening of Pakistan policy is evident from this, as well as its decision to parade anti-India jihadi groups on Kashmir Solidarity Day all over that country, and its decision to invite the hardline Kashmiri separatists to visit Pakistan. Islamabad has decided to recognise only the Geelani faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, ignoring the more moderate voice of Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. It has also sought to create a new leadership that can replace the ageing and ailing Geelani, with two new invitees — the rabid Asiya of the Dukhtaran-e-Millat and Adbul Qayum of the Kashmir Bar Council. Seema Mustafa
The malaise in the Bharati foreign policy is evident for all to see. Every analyst worth his or her salt can see the failure. Ms. Mustafa simply consecrates the obvious. Ambassador Bhadrakumar says the same—Delhi lacks the self correcting mechanism to pull itself out of the hole it has dug itself into.
New Delhi seems to be bereft of strategy as the visit of Menon to Kabul suggests. His agenda should have been to get Karzai back on track but clearly he either did not even venture into this territory but this is hard to believe, or he just did not meet with any success. The last seems more likely as Karzai who was always vocal in criticising Pakistan, is now Islamabad’s friend and has moved quite a distance away from India.
The result of what could well be a complete diplomatic misadventure is that India will have a Taliban government sitting in Kabul … The question is not of a good or bad Taliban as everyone knows it is of a pliable and rigid Taliban. And the bad might be present in large numbers in the ‘pliable’ that Pakistan is trying to get to form a government in Kabul. The choices before India are now very few, as the strategists in government should have seen this coming but obviously were too arrogant or blind to sense it. Instead of opening all links with the remnants of the Northern Alliance, the war lords and even sections of the Taliban, Indian foreign policy focused for several years only on the nuclear deal with the US, and the dialogue with Pakistan. Afghanistan was handled in a totally kick jerk fashion and now that New Delhi is waking up to the reality it finds itself pretty much on the periphery with insignificant say in developments in the region. Seema Mustafa
Bharat is packing its bags in Afghanistan. It has had a good run of a decade. Now its time to get the soldiers, and the spies out of Kabul and back to Delhi.
Indian nationals have become the target of the Taliban, which is not fighting the US in the same manner as al-Qaeda. New Delhi does not have the support it needs to protect them, and this has been pretty much made clear to the government here. US envoy Richard Holbrooke’s first comment after the terror attack in Kabul that Indians were not the intended target is a striking example of the US disinterest, and although he retracted later, the message had come through with all its implications. This is adding to muscle-flexing in Islamabad with its foreign minister and prime minister making statements that just do not compliment politicians of their seniority.
This has to stop. And it is time that the PMO, MEA and MHA sat down in strategy sessions, invited strategic experts who necessarily do not see eye to eye with the government, and worked out a strategy for the region that could help India handle Afghanistan and Pakistan from a position of strength and not weakness. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh must allow foreign policy and decision making to come back to India from Washington, and evolve a strategy that furthers Indian and not American interests. Seema MustafaFirst Published : 18 Mar 2010 11:42:00 PM IST Seema Mustafa is a commentator on political affairs.
A seminal article that describes the pickle Bharat finds itself in. Here is an excerpt from that article.
If Delhi failed to anticipate this shift in Karzai’s order of priorities, it has only itself to blame. Thus, even in the face of impending realignments in the Afghan political and military situation that were obvious to most perceptive foreign observers, Delhi kept up the presence of a few thousands Indians in Afghanistan whose security becomes now almost entirely its responsibility to shoulder.
The malaise of the Bharati foreign policy in Afghanistan and beyond is defined below.
In retrospect, Delhi’s hare-brained idea of a US-led “quadripartite alliance” against China, the “Tibet card”, the dilution of a 2003 strategic understanding with Iran, neglect of the traditional friendship with Russia, the lukewarm attitude toward the SCO, exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships – all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India’s foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about.Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Bharat has consistently aligned itself on the wrong side of history. It opposed SEATO and CENTO. it opposed the US on almost everything, voting against US 95% of the time in the US. It tried to ally itself with one of the most brutal dictators of our time Marshall Tito. It befriended Saddam Husein. It opposed the recognition of China, it opposes the one China policy. It supported the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. FM Jiechi reaffirms China’s support to Pakistan on Kashmir dispute.
Since 2001, instead of playing a positive role in Afghanistan, Delhi used the opportunity to ingratiate itself with the worst druglords on the planet. It opposed the majority of the Pakhtuns and aligned itself with a very small minority of the Afghans. Its biggest blunder was supporting Abdullah Abdullah and opposing Hamid Karzai.Karzai sings a new tune: ‘Pakistan is twin brother’. Mr. Karzai has now totally and unconditionally aligned himself with Pakistan–supported by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, China, the US and the UK. Accepting Pakistan as a Nuclear state?
Why India cannot attack Pakistan. How could Bharat overcome its defeat. Bharat can do something spectacular so that world opinion changes. Perhaps a false flag attack on a Western capital attributable to the Lashkar, or the assassination of Hamid Karzai using RAW–which is very close to the Afghan president and has access to him. Other possibilities for Bharat may include some provocation to start a war with Pakistan. These are some of the possibilities that Delhi Analysts may be toying with. Rebutting Mr. Sameer Lakwani on Afghanistan
Bharat has to settle its border disputes with all its neighbors–possibly with some loss in ego and territory. Bharat has to fix it colossal cavities with the Dalits, Maoists and the Muslims. Delhi has reinvent itself and move away from sabotaging its neighbors–be it Lanka, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, China, Bangladesh or Pakistan. Delhi has to form a more perfect union–the current one is not working. Perhaps a looser confederation of fifty states than the current stifling 22 which don’t want to be part of “India”. Bharat has to use its influences in the world in a positive manner–not the detriment of other nations.
Bharat has tremendous potential–but it is a millstone on the neck of Asia–keeping all of South Asia as the only island of penury on the continent. Meagre progress in the last decade has not made it a superpower. Even China shuns that title. It is crazy–and Bharat is incapable of changing. Bharat has to get its citizens to come down to reality and Delhi has to manage expectations. Just because Farid Zakaria calls it great–doesn’t mean that the Gharibabad slums that engulf half of Mumbai have gone away. Bharat is the hungriest nation in South Asia and in the vicinity of Chad on the scale. It however just bought a rust bucket from Russia for more than $2 billion. Is this insanity or what?
Bharat needs a new direction. Is it up to the challenge?
500,000 Pakistanis face imminent danger from impending flash floods. The Governor Gilgit-Baltistan, Mr. Qamar Zaman Kaira has declared an emergency in the area and designated Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) as a calamity area. A landslide on January 4, 2010 a landslide blocked the Hunza River forming a beautiful lake.
After the blockage of the Hunza River, the second phase of the natural catastrophe began. The river began transforming itself into a natural lake in an area called Gojal valley — an international borders’ magistracy spanning more than 10,000 sq km–connecting Pakistan with China and Afghanistan.
This phenomenon takes us back to when in 1858 the Hunza River blocked almost at the same place due to the landslide. A natural dam had emerged, submerging the upstream settlements such as half of Gulmit (the winter capital of the former principality), a significant portion of Ghulkin, Sisuni (now named as Hussani) and Passu while Shishkat and Ayeenabad were pasturages of Gulmit and not settled at that time. http://blog.travel-culture.com/2010/03/11/could-hunza-river-blockage-become-a-catastrophe-for-pakistan/
The Atabad (fka Ghareyat village) Land Sliding has blocked the flow of Hunza River– one of the fastest and coldest flowing rivers in the world. There is danger of a breach in the artificially formed dam. The Karakorum Highway faces a grave danger from gushing waters–if the natural dam breaks and the water gushes down the Indus Valley at tremendous speed. The naturally formed glacial lake threatens to wash away villages and much of the Karakorum Highway–Pakistan’s link to China and Central Asia. The situation is being monitored by the Army, and world and Pakistani experts.
One of the most important bridges on Karakoram Highway (KKH) that links Pakistan with China, the Shishkat Bridge submerged into the Lake on Hunza River after two months of Attabad Disaster which has blocked the fast flowing Hunza River. It was second longest bridge on Karakorum High Way and first is Danyour Bridge. Because of submerging of the bridge the settlements of Shiskat and Ayeenabad have turned into Islands as they have lost any dry land connections with the rest of the world. Source Gilgit Baltistan Times
ISLAMABAD, March 9: Breaches in the 15km-long and 60 metre-deep lake that was formed after a landslide in Hunza could wreak havoc all the way down to Tarbela dam.
Fearing a disaster, the environment ministry has called for preparation of an emergency plan to cope with a possible flood which may affect the population and infrastructure along the Hunza/Indus river valley from Attabad to Tarbela.
The Chinese have a lot of experience in this sort of problem and Chinese Engineers are on site.
Villages in Pakistan’s paradisaical Hunza Valley face threats of flash floods and landslides from a glacial lake that has been growing dramatically since last month.Matthew Tabaccos for The National
The entire army, and the Central government is dealing with the impending catastrophe. The Army Corps of Engineers is building a canal which would siphon off the excess water in an attempt to drain the lake.
ISLAMABAD // Army engineers are battling against time and the threat of seismic shakes to save a 500km stretch of northern Pakistan from being devastated by a potential flash flood.
The threat has been building since January 4, when a massive landslide temporarily dammed a river in the mountainous area of Hunza, widely believed to be the inspiration for the fictional kingdom of Shangri-La, creating a lake that continues to rise steadily.
The landslide removed 120 metres of mountainside, destroyed the village of Ata-abad, killing 19 residents, isolated 25,000 residents upriver from the landslide-dam, and severed a two-kilometre stretch of the Karakorum Highway, Pakistan’s only land link with China.
Gilgit-Baltistan Chief Secretary Babar Fateh Yaqoob and Home Secretary Mohammad Usman informed the meeting that spillways had been raised and emergency arrangements made to cope with the situation. Measures like relocation of the affected people, monitoring of alert systems and availability of fund, food and medicines were under way, they said.
The meeting called for safety of downstream communities, constant monitoring of the water level in dam, effective communication and evacuation plans and development of an early warning system and a 24-hour monitoring service.
The meeting urged the government to seek assistance and expertise from China to mitigate the threat. Dawn
The temporary lake, fed by glacia meltwaters, has since grown dramatically, and now stretches 15km back from the blockage, and is more than 70 metres deep.
Engineers of the army’s Frontier Works Organisation have been working since last month on the construction of a spillway that authorities hope will gradually drain the water.
Scientists said the lake could grow to 20km in length by the onset of summer as, from April onwards, rising temperatures would significantly increase glacial melt and water flow into the lake.
Although the scientists, who have surveyed the site, have endorsed the engineers’ strategy, they warn that the instability of the dam made the eventual outcome unpredictable and potentially disastrous. The 900-metre-long mass of landslide debris that formed the dam is largely made up of powder-like sediments.
David Petley, director of the International Landslide Centre at Durham University in the United Kingdom said: “The most likely scenario is that the water will flow over the dam when it reaches the top. The other scenario is that the overflow could wash away the top of the dam, after which there would be rapid erosion and collapse. It’s very difficult to forecast.
“It would be a prudent conclusion to assume the worst when the water reaches the top, at which point it would be sensible to evacuate all the people downstream.”
Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) has been been given the task of removal of debris of landslide under the technical supervision of NESPAK.
The federal minister said that engineers of the World Bank have also been invited for inspection of the site and expert opinion. He said the work on release of water was being done in the light of world Banks advice.
Governor also stated that there are no chances of breach of lake but if required the Government was fully prepared to deal with any situation. G-B Times
Lake at Hunza River Source: http://blog.travel-culture.com
He stressed that a flash flood was “by no means an inevitability”, but historical evidence and a report submitted by Nespak, a state engineering firm, have highlighted the potential for disaster.
The National Disaster Management Authority, which is overseeing recovery efforts in Hunza, has told local legislators that the collapse of the dam would send a 20-metre-high tsunami-like flash flood crashing down the Hunza Valley.
In that event, the water would sweep down from an altitude of nearly 2,500 metres, being replenished by first the Gilgit River and then the Indus, before hurtling down the narrow northern stretches of the Indus Valley towards the Tarbela Dam, 40km north-west of Islamabad.
British colonial records from the 19th century report that two similar incidents caused flash floods that killed several thousand people and inundated huge areas of modern Pakistan.
The force of the flash flood would wreak catastrophic damage, destroying all communities and infrastructure, including most of the Karakorum Highway, a marvel of modern engineering built between 1966 and 1978 that ended centuries of isolation for the people of the region, now known as Gilgit-Baltistan, the scientists said.
The environment minister asked the authorities concerned to prepare a foolproof plan if the lake burst out. “Lives of the people are important for us. We need a comprehensive study and plan for expected damage and rescue efforts,” Mr Afridi said, adding that he would seek support from the Chinese government to release water from Hunza river. The water level in the lake had risen to 213 feet on Tuesday and was rising by two feet daily. The situation will become more dangerous with increased inflow after melting of snow as temperature usually rises by at least four degree Celsius in April.
The meeting was informed that people living up to a height of 50 feet would be vulnerable. Moreover, the increase in water flow in coming months would aggravate the threat if water already accumulated was not released, it was told. APP
Army at Hunza slide creating a secure spillway so that Hunza Lake can be flow down the spillway; Source of picture: http://blog.travel-culture.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/army-d-at-hunza-slide.jpg
The region is also among the most seismically active in the world because it is located at the junction of the Asian and Indian geological plates, where the Himalaya, Karakorum and Hindu Kush mountain ranges meet.
Work is on to clear the Karakoram Highway. Matthew Tabaccos for The National
Much of it sits upon an island plate squeezed between the two continental landmasses, when they collided hundreds of millions of years ago.
Chinese Engineers on site of Hunza Lake. Picture from Gilgit Baltistan Times
Hunza (Bashir): A team of 14 experts of Engineers from China arrived to Hunza, Gilgit-Baltistan in order to open the blockage of Hunza River and KKH. Because of Attabad Land sliding of January 4, the flow of Hunza river blocked and it has formed lake extending to the villages of Ayeenabad and Shishkat.
Until now tens of houses in thousands kanals of agricultural land and trees have been submerged into the Lake of Hunza River and hundreds of individual displaced. It is fear that if the Hunza river remained block it would further damage homes, and property of of the people in Ayeenabad, Shiskat and Gulmit, so it was forcefully demanded by the people of Hunza to open the blockage of the river immediately. Now the Chinese engineers are in Hunza and it is hoped that the blockage of the river will start soon.
7 member of the team would work on blockage of the river and the other 7 engineers along with the engineers who are currently working on the repair and maintenance of KKH will work on opening the KKH. Gilgit-Baltistan Times
The danger of a massive landslide at Ataabad had been apparent since February 2003, when a huge crack appeared in the terrain four months after an earthquake hit the region, the officials said.
Authorities have since been urging residents to relocate, but they have refused to move unless they were provided with alternative residential and farming land.
Officials, backed by community-based non-government organisations sponsored by the Aga Khan, the spiritual leader of Hunza’s predominantly Ismaili population, finally persuaded people living at higher altitudes to move just days before the landslide.
The weight of evidence last week prompted Hameed-ullah Jan Afridi, Pakistan’s environment minister, to order preparation of an emergency plan, including mass evacuations.
A proposal for pumping the water using a high pressure pump for the safe passage of the water without any serious damage to the environment of the effected area has been proposed by some Professors from Japan Pamir Times
“Preparations must start immediately,” he said in an official statement.
However, local politicians said the government had wasted vital time dithering, unwisely focusing all initially on relief efforts and issuing unrealistic estimates on how long it would take to remove the debris before finally deciding who would undertake the mammoth task.
Beautiful but very deadly Hunza Lake: Picture taken from Pamir Times. Picture taken by by Zulfiqar
Nazir Sabir, a local politician and Pakistan’s premier mountaineer, said:
“There were serious errors in understanding the longer-term threats posed by the artificial lake and formulating a strategy based on the right perspective.
“There was too much bureaucracy, both in terms of decision making and assignment of blame [for the landslide], for due attention to be paid to the complicated process of debris removal.” Race to save Pakistan’s ‘Shangri-La’ valley from devastating flash flood, Tom Hussain, Foreign Correspondent
Last Updated: March 16. 2010 12:36AM UAE / March 15. 2010 8:36PM GMT
thussain@thenational.ae
ISLAMABAD, Mar 8 (APP): President Asif Ali Zardari on Monday sought a report from Governor Gilgit Baltistan over the relief and rehabilitation measures undertaken for the landslide affectees of Atta Abad in the Hunza valley and steps for the draining of an artificial lake.The massive landslide had hit Hunza District on January 4, that led to the sliding of two villages including Atta Abad into the Hunza River. The landslide wiped-out everything in its path and the debris fell down into the Hunza River, blocking its water flow. Pamir Times
History is repeating itself.
The lake outburst of 1858 thus destroyed the settlements along the basins of Hunza and Indus Rivers. After reaching Attock, the giant storm sent a reverse wave in the Kabul River beyond Nawshira. Prof Dr. Kenneth Hewitt, a prominent Canadian professor Emeritus of Geography in Waterloo University reflects:
“The 1858 flood wave was still massive at Attock. In fact it sent a reverse wave up the Kabul River about 50km. Reports after 1858 suggest the flood wave reached 10-20m above high summer flows along the Gilgit and Indus, and caused erosion of river terraces ‘100s of feet’ back from the channel.”http://blog.travel-culture.com/2010/03/11/could-hunza-river-blockage-become-a-catastrophe-for-pakistan/
There are increasing calls from the pundits in Delhi to try to create a division of Afghanistan–to partition Afghanistan along ethnic lines. According to the new Indian Doctrine, Bharat wants to create further schisms in Afghanistan by attempting to control the Tajik and Uzbek sections of the country and anoint Abdullah Abdullah as the leader of the Non-Pakhtun areas. Bharat would then use Iranian roads, and links from Tajikstan to export its goods to Central Asia. Some of this has been proposed by Mr. Sameer Lakwanit in an article written in dawn.com and then reproduced by Foreign Policy and Reuters-UK. However Mr. Lakwani is not the lone voice in this. Other Bharati thinkers want to leverage the “so called “aid” to Afghanistan to accomplish Bharat’s nefarious schemes.
Bharat (aka India) is very proud of proclaiming that is has spent $1 Billion in aid to Pakistan. This is pure unadulterated nonsense. What Delhi should say that it has given $1 billion to Bharati companies who has spent a fraction of that to build projects which would help Bharat gain access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. For example, it has built a short 150 km highway linking the ring road to a road that leads to Iran. The road is nothing but an attempt for Bharat to ship products to Kabul and beyond. The road runs through Taliban territory and has been blown up by the Taliban who totally control it. Another Bharati project is the construction of dam in Afghanistan which denies water to Pakistan and Iran. Both the neighbors hate the dam as it denies water to Pakistani Pakhtuns.
Pakistan’s contribution to Afghanistan is ten times what Delhi could ever hope to do for the Afghans
According to Bharati thinking neighbors are regarded as enemies and an enemy’s immediate neighbor as a friend. Chan Akya
Indian pledged huge aid package to Afghanistan has neither been dispensed nor any mega development project for Afghanistan had commenced in time.
In past 7 years India remains more committed in buying time for Indian owned projects in Afghanistan on one or the other pretext and increasing number of RAW agents in the garb of security personnel, workers, doctors, engineers etc.
After using the water of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Nepali rivers India is escalating its water terrorism to Iran as well.
India is building Salma dam on Hari Rud river basin in northwest in Afghanistan, which flows into Iran and forms Sistan delta
Islamabad hosted 3 million Afghan refugees for more than a decade in Pakistan.
Even today, Pakistan hosts about 2 million refugees, many of whom live near Quetta–and some may constitute the much maligned Quetta Shura.
Bharati aid to Kabul is to serve its own interests–to buy warlords, spread its influence, and to put pressure on Pakistan, and get access to Central Asia. All its projects are for Delhi’s interests.
Bharat thumps its chest every opportunity it gets about spending $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan. A false claim. Bharat did give several hundred million Dollars to its own firms to build some things in Afghanistan. The Indian firms used the Indian money to make themselves rich. They in turn did spend some money in Afghanistan. The project where the money was spent was not based on Afghan needs–the projects were based on the needs of Delhi. All the projects undertaken were not undertaken to assist Afghans or to help them.Bharati projects in Afghanistan were to allow it a land access to Kabul and beyond. Insidious Indian propoaganda against Pakistan
Pakistani support to the Afghans was based on kinship, brotherhood and assistance for the Afghans where Kabul needed it. Pakistan directly spent about $500 million on Afghan projects. However the biggest help is in another form. More than 3 million Afghans are still hosted in Pakistan without any international assistance. HUndreds of thousands live near Quetta, and hundreds of thousands have melted away into Pakistani society. Pakistan does not thump its chest about this. Pakistanis think of this as their duty.
Today Bharat’s thumping its chest is being berated and ridiculed all over Afghanistan. The roads are already unusable and other projects lie in disrepair. Today Bharat faces an eviction from Afghanistan. To stay in Kabul, it will have to defy 62 countries and the combined Loya jirga between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is obvious that Bharat will not willingly melt away in Afghanistan. Indian sabotage of Pakistan continues.
For the first time in history it has used Afghan soil against Pakistan. The rise of Fascism in Bharat has largely been ignored by the West. America and Europe ignores the rise of parties like the RSS, Bajrang Dal, VHP and the BJP at its own peril. The chickens have come home to roost. Today Bharat faces imminent eviction from Afghanistan.
Pakistan has spent $500 million in Afghanistan, and provides logistical support to the Afghan lifeline–water, food, equipment, appliances all go through Pakistan at subsidised not internal tariff rates. Pakistan’s contribution to Afghanistan is ten times what Delhi could ever hope to do for the Afghans. Islamabad hosted 3 million Afghan refugees for more than a decade in Pakistan. Even today, Pakistan hosts about 2 million refugees, many of whom live near Quetta–and some may constitute the much maligned Quetta Shura.
Unfortunately, after using the water of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Nepali rivers India is escalating its water terrorism to Iran as well. India is building Salma dam on Hari Rud river basin in northwest in Afghanistan, which flows into Iran and forms Sistan delta. Originally Salma Dam was constructed in 1976 while in 2004 Water and Power Consultancy Service (India) Ltd (WAPCOS) began reconstruction of Salma Dam power project in 2004. The completion of the project has been unnecessarily delayed and it is now expected to be commissioned by 2011 instead of 2009.
Salma Dam like projects is manifestation of India’s dual regional policy according to which neighbours are regarded as enemies and an enemy’s immediate neighbour as a friend. Also all such dams are a clear violation of the rights of lower riparian according to international law. Yet, USA is looking up to India as central player in resolving Afghanistan problem. But what can one possibly expect from a country which stoops to lowest level of immorality by stealing water and blocking rivers to turn agricultural lands barren?? If US really wants peace and stability in the region then it should restrict India from making war-ravaged Afghanistan a chessboard to pursue her own agenda. Better it would be for India to refrain from playing foul games, testing the patience of Afghans and victimizing other regional neighbours through its water terrorism before it is too late. On the other hand, it would be better for Afghan authorities too, that despite playing in the hands of Indian and relying on the alien clutches’, they better should struggle themselves to stand on their own feet and realize the Indian conspiracy before time runs out. Indian Water Strategy – To Embrace or Alienate? Kashmir Watch, March 5. S. Ashfaq. Author can be reached at: shamsaashfaq@yahoo.com. Posted on 05 Mar 2010 by Webmaster
Indian interests lie in good will of Afghan masses is merely an eyewash. Indian keenness to reconstruct Salma dam is aimed at encouraging Afghan masses to agitate against the Iranian interference in the construction of Salma dam in order to create rift between Afghanistan and Iran at one hand and to appease USA by depriving Iran of appropriate flow of water thus harming agricultural economy on the other hand. India by and large has no interest in developing Afghanistan besides keeping it under thumb. Paradoxically, Indian pledged huge aid package to Afghanistan has neither been dispensed nor any mega development project for Afghanistan had commenced in time. Instead, in last 7 years India remain more committed in buying time for India-owned projects in Afghanistan on one or the other pretext and increasing number of RAW agents in the garb of security personnel, workers, doctors, engineers etc.
Factually, India needs the Afghanistan link for many reasons i.e. to maintain its links with the Central Asian states, to carry out subversive activities against Pakistan – considered its enemy No 1 and to appease US and western allies. During Taliban rule, India faced difficulties in maintaining its influence in the Central Asian region, which is not only energy rich but its large consumer market is of geo-strategic importance to India.
According to an Indian analyst, Meena Singh Roy,“India as an extended neighbour of CARs, has major geo-strategic and economic interests in this region”. That is why India is investing heavily in building road s and infrastructure linking Afghanistan with the Central Asian states. Apart from Salma dam project, Indian oil companies are active in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Moreover, in March 2007, after completing the refurbishment of a military base at Ayni, India became fourth country, apart from Russia, US and Germany to have a base in Central Asia. The base is of strategic importance to India. An Indian analyst Sudha Ramachandran observed that. “ A base at Ayni allows India rapid response to any emerging threat from the volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan arc … It also gives New Delhi a limited but significant capability to inject special forces into hostile theaters as and when the situation demands … in the event of military confrontation with Pakistan, India would be able to strike Pakistan’s rear from Tajik soil… Ayni has to do with India’s growing interests in Central Asia as well”.
US tells Delhi to back off Pakistan and lay low in Afghanistan. All countries are working on peace in Kabul–except one. Bharat has consistently managed to aggravate each and every one its neighbors, Nepal, Lanka, China, Maldives, Sikkim, Bhutan and Pakistan. Even Bangladesh is extremely angry with Delhi ton immigration, on the Border Security force, and for Bharat’s illegal support for the terrorist among the Chittagong Hill Tracks.
A seminal article that describes the pickle Bharat finds itself in.
If Delhi failed to anticipate this shift in Karzai’s order of priorities, it has only itself to blame. Thus, even in the face of impending realignments in the Afghan political and military situation that were obvious to most perceptive foreign observers, Delhi kept up the presence of a few thousands Indians in Afghanistan whose security becomes now almost entirely its responsibility to shoulder.
The malaise of the Bharati foreign policy in Afghanistan and beyond is defined below.
In retrospect, Delhi’s hare-brained idea of a US-led “quadripartite alliance” against China, the “Tibet card”, the dilution of a 2003 strategic understanding with Iran, neglect of the traditional friendship with Russia, the lukewarm attitude toward the SCO, exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships – all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India’s foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about.Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar
Bharat is trying to revive an arcadian past that never existed. Their mission? To introduce a zeitgeist of solecism to our society. Behind Bharat’s mask of benevolence stands a complete plan for regional hegemony, Asian supremacy, world power status leading to world conquest, and the promotion of selfish demagogism.
ISLAMABAD—Iran and Pakistan signed a deal in Turkey on Tuesday paving the way for construction to start on a much-delayed natural-gas pipeline connecting the two nations in a move that has been opposed by Washington as undermining sanctions efforts against Tehran.
Pakistan has argued the pipeline, which will connect Iran’s South Pars gas field with Pakistan’s [...]
The purpose of this article it to rebut the errors in Mr. Lakwani’s article which was published in Dawn.com, FP and Reuters (UK). It is disgusting the Dawn.com publishes such racist claptrap–thus being a prime source of propagating anti-Pakistan propaganda.
Mr. Lakwani needs a lesson in geography.
Wakhan corridor which borders china contains highest peaks of the world it is so remote and inhospitable and mountainous–it would be a great engineering feat if there ever will be a road constructed there. It is cheaper for the Chinese to make a rail through pakistan than to Afghanistan. This is exactly what has been planned.
Reuters should be ashamed of this sort of shoddy reporting. Let us examine the points that Lakwani raises–regurgitated by Reuters (UK):
1) China’s $3 billion investment in Afghanistan’s Anyak copper mine will require the construction of a new railroad between Afghanistan and China’s Xinjiang province and an electricity station.
Mr. Lakwani cannot see Pakistan on the map. That is his personal problem. Minor detail Mr. Lakwani–Afghanistan does not have a long border with China. There is a touch point, bur reality dictates the rail goes through Pakistan and Tajikistan.
The lifeline of Wakhi people depends on Pakistan’s Chapursan valley. Every year in summer Wakhis cross the Ershads pass to come for trade clothing and foods etc. For 5 months snow prevents the movement. It is a lot easier for Wakhi to come to Pakistani to buy food than to Afghanistan. Wakhan is Pakistani territory.
Mr. Lakwani fails to mention that the rail line goes through Pakistan and Islamabad is part and parcel of this venture. China is building it for the copper. What will Afghanistan get by going into Xinjiang? Afghanistan needs goods from Karachi. Kabul to Brussels is slightly longer (about seven times longer) than Kabul to Karachi. This is the ECO integration being discussed. The same rail links Pakistan Railways to Europe–also linked from Islamabad to Istanbul via Tehran. Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are spending $20 billion on the Islamabad to Istanbul link.
Another minor detail. The road link goes through Gilgit and Baltistan, Pakistan’s 5th province. On the one hand Bharat is chagrined at the rail link–on the other hand Mr. Lakwani seems to hold it up as the saviour of Afghanistan.
2) Second, northern Afghanistan’s links to Central Asia will continue to deepen. Thanks to an Indian-constructed bridge in 2007 linking Afghanistan and Tajikistan
Mr. Lakwani must live in a fools paradise to think that Tajikistan–another land locked country can provide Afghanistan with what it needs from Europe and America
3) Afghanistan is developing an alternative southern route to the Arabian Sea. While in the past, landlocked Afghanistan depended on Pakistan to transport its goods through the port of Karachi, Indian completion in 2008 of the 135-mile road from Nimroz province to Iran’s Chahbahar
The world has never seen so much hyperbole over any 135 mile road anywhere on the planet. Mr. Lakwani fails to mention that Bharat does not have access to Chahbahar anymore. Because Bharat stabbed iran in the back at the IAEA, launched satellites for Israel, and supported Rigi–there is no longer an Indo-Iranian relationship. Sanctioned Iran cannot import and send products to Afghanistan. The infrastructure just isn’t there
Two news stories are making the rounds in Islamabad. The first one has not been challenged, not even by Imran Khan or the Jamat e Islami. The second one has created a huge strom along Constitutional Avenue and in the National Assembly building.
President Mushrraf has stupidly claimed that it is in “our” national interest to stay in Afghanistan. We are not sure, who “we” are in Afghanistan, but it is poignant to note that there are no Pakistani troops occupying Afghanistan. Not sure which Single malt the former president is on this week, but the use the plural “we” depicts the UK and the US. Just because the disgraced president lives in the United Kingdom, he does not have the right to speak for the UK. If he does, then he has no right to speak for Pakistan.
Former president Pervez Musharraf criticized U.S. plans to begin pulling troops out of Afghanistan in just over a year. At a stop on his speaking tour, Musharraf praised President Barack Obama for committing 30,000 more troops to fighting the Taliban. But the former leader was sharply opposed to Obama’s plan to begin withdrawing forces in July 2011, saying U.S. soldiers should fight until the Taliban is defeated. “We are there because we understand how critical it is to the region, to the world,” Musharraf said. “We must win.”
Mr. Musharraf’s remarks are intended to appeal to the hawks in the US government. He is seeking to get support from outside Pakistan. This is pathetic, and reminds us of the silly antics of Benazir Bhutto when she was out of office. She would say anything to get an audience.
The continuation of occupation can not be good. US occupation of Afghanistan creates a spill over into Pakistan. The sooner the occupation ends, the better it will be for Pakistan. The occupation gives Bharat a foothold in Kabul, from which it can send mercenaries to Pakistan. Mr. Musharraf is very wrong on this issue.
The second story is about the alleged statement made by Mr. Shahbaz Sharif. I listened to the statement and found it to be innocuous and sublime. The tone, the language and the halting nature of the speech did not show any aggressiveness or parochial agenda. Mr. Sharif was simply saying that if the Talibs have any grievance against the bad policies of the former president, why are they attacking Lahore. Lahore has not done them any harm. Perhaps it would have been politically correct to add Quetta, Peshawar, and Karachi to the sentence and then it would have not have been made into a huge issue.
The liberal media needed an opportunity to pounce on the Sharifs. Mr. Shahbaz Sharif’s ill fated remarks gave them the opportunity to do so. All sorts of charges are now being brought against him. Mr. Sharif is being called Pro-Taliban. This is a charge that will stay with the Sharifs, no matter how many trips they make to the US Embassy, and no matter how much the praise the American presence.
The Sharifs have not played the political field as well as “Abbajee” would have liked them to play it. They took a national political party and reduced it into a one province party. Mr. Sharif was the Chief Minister of Punjab under President Zia Ul Haq. He used that opportunity to build the Muslim League as a national organization. However in the last poll he failed to appeal to the Sindhis and the Baloch. The Sharifs waged an unnecessary and fratricidal war against Urban Sindh in an needless military action. More than 10,000 lives were lost chasing ghosts. Mr. Zardari had the sense to end that action and use the duly elected leaders in building the province and the country. Mr. Shairf should learn a lesson from that. Mr. Sharif should reach out to Urban Sindh, and rural Sindh. mr. Sharif should liberate himself from his self-imposed incarceration in Raiwind, and should be waging an election campaign in Quetta, Peshawar, Karachi and Mirpur. This is the time–sle the liberal media will have him for lunch
